Tom Brady TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 12:25 AM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-245/+165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.5% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 8th-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on just 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.