Tom Brady TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.7% red zone pass rate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tom Brady's throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.3% to 61.7%.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (67.7%).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

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