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Tom Brady

Tom Brady TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+132/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 67.9% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.9 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (67.7%).

The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.92 per game this year.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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