Tom Brady TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 67.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.3%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 9th-least TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.17 per game this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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