Tom Brady Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+142/-191).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -147 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -191.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (6.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.1% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-most yards in football (131 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to garner 1.6 carries in this week's game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Tom Brady has generated just 0.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the NFL among QBs (3rd percentile).
Tom Brady has been among the worst QBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 1.16 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 16th percentile.

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