Tom Brady Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 2:50 AM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-103/-133).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the 31st-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to garner 1.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
Tom Brady has grinded out just 4.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in football among quarterbacks (13th percentile).
Tom Brady has been among the weakest QBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 1.26 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 17th percentile.