Tom Brady Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Green Bay Packers defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, allowing 4.95 yards-per-carry.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to total 1.2 carries in this contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
Tom Brady has picked up a mere 4.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest marks in football among quarterbacks (13th percentile).
Tom Brady has been among the bottom QBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 1.30 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 17th percentile.