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Tom Brady

Tom Brady Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 34.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Tom Brady is not a mobile quarterback and has accounted for a mere 0.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 3rd percentile among QBs.

Tom Brady has generated a mere 4.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the NFL among QBs (14th percentile).

Tom Brady has been among the worst QBs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging just 1.43 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 24th percentile.

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