Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 27, 2022 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 285.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 281.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 285.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 68.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.5 passes in this game, on average: the most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 10th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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