Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 281.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 285.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 281.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.3 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tom Brady has passed for a lot fewer yards per game (290.0) this year than he did last year (319.0).
Tom Brady's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a mere 6.48 yards-per-target vs a 7.48 rate last year.
The Carolina Panthers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.89 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

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