Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 272.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 271.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 272.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 43.8 passes this week, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Tom Brady has thrown for quite a few less yards per game (287.0) this season than he did last season (319.0).
Tom Brady's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, notching a measly 6.44 yards-per-target compared to a 7.48 figure last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a mere 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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