Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 252.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 250.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.9 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Tom Brady has passed for substantially fewer yards per game (286.0) this season than he did last season (319.0).
Tom Brady has been among the worst per-play QBs in football this year, averaging just 6.56 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 18th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (67.7%).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.19 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.73 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.

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