Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 261.5 (+104/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 261.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 261.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Tom Brady has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a mere 6.68 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 24th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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