Tom Brady Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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