Tom Brady Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.9 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (67.7%).
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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