Tom Brady Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:24 AM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-141/+109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.6 passes this week, on average: the most of all QBs.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest level in football vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.