My Account Log Out

reorder

T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

In this game, T.J. Hockenson is predicted by the model to find himself in the 95th percentile among TEs with 6.7 targets.

This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded a whopping 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 9th-largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Vikings.

T.J. Hockenson's 40.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 51.5.

T.J. Hockenson's receiving skills have worsened this year, totaling a mere 4.2 adjusted catches compared to 6.2 last year.

The Packers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™