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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-146/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) this year.

The model projects T.J. Hockenson to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 55.8 per game on average).

T.J. Hockenson's 18.2% Target Share this season reflects a remarkable reduction in his pass game usage over last season's 23.8% figure.

T.J. Hockenson's play as a receiver has diminished this season, compiling just 4.6 adjusted catches vs 6.2 last season.

This year, the formidable Falcons defense has allowed a puny 71.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-best rate in the league.

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