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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 7.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.

T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 75.2% to 81.3%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.

T.J. Hockenson's 42.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 51.5.

T.J. Hockenson's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 5.1 adjusted catches compared to 6.2 last year.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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