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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.9% pass rate.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

The model projects T.J. Hockenson to earn 5.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

T.J. Hockenson has been one of the best TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 6.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

The Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.9%) to TEs this year (79.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Vikings are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.

The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (just 52.8 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.

The predictive model expects T.J. Hockenson to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack in this week's contest (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.1% in games he has played).

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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