T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 9.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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