T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to notch 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
T.J. Hockenson's 37.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving skills have diminished this year, totaling a measly 3.7 yards per game vs 5.0 last year.