T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-113/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.75 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's pass-catching performance tailed off this season, totaling just 3.4 yards per game vs 5.0 last season.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.