T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
T.J. Hockenson's 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving performance has declined this year, compiling a mere 2.8 yards per game vs 5.0 last year.

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