T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.0 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 5.0 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to earn 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
T.J. Hockenson's 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving performance has tailed off this season, totaling just 2.8 yards per game vs 5.0 last season.

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