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T.J. Hockenson
NFL · Player Props
T.J. Hockenson
TE · Minnesota Vikings
Receptions
Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022 Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC
NFL Props T.J. Hockenson Receptions

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.0 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 5.0 @ -150.

Favors Over
  • The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to earn 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Favors Under
  • The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
  • The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • T.J. Hockenson's receiving performance has tailed off this season, totaling just 2.8 yards per game vs 5.0 last season.
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