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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+106/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

T.J. Hockenson's 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

T.J. Hockenson's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, compiling a measly 2.1 yards per game compared to 5.0 last year.

The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.9%) versus TEs this year (62.9%).

The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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