T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 8.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 70.5%.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.

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