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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 132.8 offensive plays run: the highest number among all games this week.

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

In this week's contest, T.J. Hockenson is anticipated by the model to finish in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.6 targets.

This year, the weak Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing TEs: a whopping 5.53 YAC.

The Rams linebackers profile as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

T.J. Hockenson has totaled far fewer air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).

T.J. Hockenson's 41.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 51.5.

T.J. Hockenson has notched many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).

T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 75.2% to 68.7%.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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