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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The predictive model expects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 6.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs.

T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 75.2% to 82.1%.

T.J. Hockenson's receiving efficiency has gotten a boost this year, notching 9.12 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.66 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Vikings, who are heavily favored by 7 points.

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Vikings have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 32.8 per game) this year.

T.J. Hockenson's 18.4% Target Rate this season shows a significant decline in his pass game workload over last season's 23.8% figure.

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