T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.3 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects T.J. Hockenson to total 8.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
With a sizeable 21.6% Target% (96th percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson rates as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.1 plays per game.
T.J. Hockenson has notched far fewer air yards this season (51.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
T.J. Hockenson's ability to generate extra yardage has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 figure last season.
This year, the daunting Packers defense has given up a mere 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 9th-best in football.

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