T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 62.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are projected by the projection model to run 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
The predictive model expects T.J. Hockenson to total 8.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson's 40.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
The Vikings have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
T.J. Hockenson has notched far fewer air yards this season (49.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
T.J. Hockenson's ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this year, averaging just 4.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.18 figure last year.
The Bears pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.50 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in football.

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