T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
Our trusted projections expect T.J. Hockenson to earn 8.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
In regards to air yards, T.J. Hockenson grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among TEs this year, averaging a superb 64.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Vikings to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
T.J. Hockenson's 3.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies an impressive regression in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 6.2% rate.

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