T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 63.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
The model projects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 10.4 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
The model projects this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
T.J. Hockenson's ability to pick up extra yardage has declined this year, accumulating just 3.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 figure last year.
This year, the formidable Bears pass defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing tight ends: a measly 3.3 YAC.

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