T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) because they be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The model projects the Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, T.J. Hockenson is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 10.3 targets.
When it comes to air yards, T.J. Hockenson ranks in the towering 100th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a colossal 65.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, T.J. Hockenson has been more prominently used in his team's passing attack.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Broncos, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.8 per game) this year.
T.J. Hockenson's ability to pick up extra yardage has declined this season, averaging a mere 3.99 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 rate last season.

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