T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 80.5% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging just 5.25 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 6th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.