T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's 40.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has accrued many fewer receiving yards per game (41.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 57.0%.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 35.0) to TEs this year.

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