T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:10 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
T.J. Hockenson has accumulated a monstrous 49.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 52.3%.
T.J. Hockenson's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a measly 4.22 yards-per-target vs a 7.12 rate last season.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.

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