T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 84.4% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 6.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson has compiled a monstrous 51.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.6% pass rate.
T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 49.6%.
T.J. Hockenson's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this year, totaling a mere 5.22 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 rate last year.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the bottom TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 3.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 9th percentile.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.

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