T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.75 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 5.10 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 mark last year.
The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 38.0) to TEs this year.

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