T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+107/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 7.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
T.J. Hockenson's 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has accumulated substantially fewer receiving yards per game (10.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson's receiving efficiency has declined this year, averaging just 3.34 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 figure last year.

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