T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 84.9% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has notched a colossal 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 18th percentile.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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