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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-361).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -335 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -361.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

T.J. Hockenson has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.3% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among TEs.

T.J. Hockenson has accrued a monstrous 52.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

T.J. Hockenson's 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 59.7%.

The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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