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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+239/-381).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +245 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +239.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.7 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in football.

T.J. Hockenson has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 24.1% this year, which puts him in the 96th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

T.J. Hockenson's 40.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.

The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 57.0%.

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (68%) versus TEs this year (68.0%).

The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the least passing TDs in the NFL to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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