T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-289).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +244 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
T.J. Hockenson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.8% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson has accumulated a whopping 56.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson ranks in the 100th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.75 per game.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
T.J. Hockenson's 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 59.4%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (66.7%) to TEs this year (66.7%).

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