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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+183/-266).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +212 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +183.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

T.J. Hockenson has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.4% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.

T.J. Hockenson has accumulated a monstrous 49.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.

T.J. Hockenson ranks in the 89th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.33 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

T.J. Hockenson's 32.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.

T.J. Hockenson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 52.3%.

The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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