T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-445).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -310 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -445.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 22.4% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has compiled a monstrous 51.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 95th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 49.6%.
The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the 9th-least passing TDs in the league to tight ends: 0.28 per game since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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