T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-270).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.4% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has accrued a monstrous 49.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 74.4% to 78.5%.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
T.J. Hockenson's 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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