T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-307).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -292 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -307.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
T.J. Hockenson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.4% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has compiled a colossal 47.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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