T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
T.J. Hockenson has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 24.5% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson has put up a colossal 50.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.9%) versus TEs this year (62.9%).
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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