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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+262/-434).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +275 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +262.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

T.J. Hockenson has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.7% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among TEs.

T.J. Hockenson has accrued a monstrous 48.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among tight ends.

T.J. Hockenson grades out in the 92nd percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.38 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.

T.J. Hockenson's 39.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 48.2.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.4% to 69.6%.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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